Global economies have choices on how to grow GDP. The wold changed as globalism waned with the decline in GPD growth of 4.5% to sub 3%. The advent of countries vying for export growth will lead to currency wars and mercantilism in order to garner their share of global growth.

Much of the central bank’s GDP-led policy on the table to date has been tainted by incrementalism.  We are in an era of uncertainty dominated more than ever by governmental policies. All asset classes have been inflated largely due to QE, the Fed asset purchases resulting in low volatility. A moderate growth scenario is in place for the foreseeable future with countries vying for internal growth versus exports and competition for resource security.

The world is facing both cyclical and structural change, which requires a new lens. Pundits, analysts, et al., spend too much time on examining the trade off between austerity and government stimulus, QE liquidity triggers  A lot depends on how global fiscal policy dovetails with national moentary policy over the next 5 years.  These decisions will change global competitive advantages, trade balances, and economic prospects going forward.


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