Love is … an equity rally?

“There’s no euphoria,” the hedgie moaned. “This is the most unloved equity rally that I can remember. And of course, equity markets tend to fall off a cliff every seven years. Think 2000 and 2007!”20140803_BAMLVOL1_0 As geopolitical uncertainty swells, it does appear that investors are overly complacent. There has not been a 10% retracement in the US indices during the last two years, yet US 10-year Treasury yields hover around the surreal level of 2.5%. And then there’s Europe, with it’s over-valued currency and treacherously low government bond yields. For how much longer can the key central bankers – garden gnome Janet Yellen, and matinée idols Mario Draghi and Mark Carney – continue to keep all the balls in the air? economic-policyOne balloon that has certainly been punctured over the last seven years has been that of the freewheeling, self-satisfied, banking industry. By some metrics, the industry has been squashed, like an unfortunate ant, under the heel of overweening regulators. But if you turn the glass the other way up, the industry has not suffered as much as some imagined, when capitalism trembled on the edge of the precipice in October 2008.

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